04-16-2025
Bill Strong, former Co-CEO of Asia Pacific for Morgan Stanley and a member of its Global Management Committee and current partner at Anzu Partners, offered a candid assessment of today’s macroeconomic landscape during a recent discussion with Daniels School of Business students. His insights — forged through decades in global finance and venture capital — highlight critical tensions in U.S. trade policy, shifting economic power dynamics, and the contrasting trajectories of China and Singapore.
Strong critiqued the current administration’s tariff strategies, framing tariffs as a tax that ultimately burdens consumers and disrupts supply chains. While acknowledging the need to address unequal trade practices (e.g., higher foreign tariffs on U.S. goods), he emphasized that labor costs — not tariffs — are the primary driver of offshoring that leads to trade deficits. For example, skilled roles in India or the Philippines often cost 30-50% less than in the U.S., making reshoring unlikely without wage parity.
While Strong would prefer a zero-tariff free-trade system, he notes that tariffs are not the only barrier in business. For the present, he’d like to see reciprocal tariffs to level the playing field, paired with addressing non-tariff barriers like legal restrictions on foreign firms in China. However, he cautioned that unpredictability in trade policy creates paralysis for businesses; essentially, uncertainty is the antithesis of growth. Companies can’t plan if the rules change daily.
Strong predicts that Asia Pacific will account for over 40% of global GDP by 2050, driven by population growth and rising consumption. Yet the U.S. retains unique advantages in high-value sectors like technology and financial services, where its open, free-market system fosters innovation through trial and error.
Strong believes it’s critical for the U.S. to focus on bringing the manufacturing of super conductors and other technologies to U.S. soil. Also, he’d like to see the U.S. balance its role as a global stabilizer with demands for fairer burden-sharing among allies — a delicate act in an era of geopolitical fragmentation.
He stressed the importance of nurturing long-term relationships with Asian partners, such as India, Singapore, and to some extent, China. Strong, who spent portions of his career in Hong Kong and London, criticized China’s ethical disparities in business practices and noted that its aging population and significantly small safety net make its future uncertain.
Strong believes that even as Asia’s economic influence grows with its population, investment in China remains uncertain. China’s demographic is a potential time bomb. Aging populations and a shrinking workforce loom large. By 2050, China’s median age will hit 50, straining its limited social safety net. Couple that with China's systemic corruption, and Strong sees fundamental economic headwinds that deter long-term investment.
In contrast, Strong praised Singapore for its pro-business and rule-of-law advantage. Singapore is marked by regulatory clarity and anti-corruption rigor, says Strong, which has made it a magnet for global capital. Strong recalled how officials proactively courted Morgan Stanley to relocate jobs from another Asian country by addressing tax concerns within weeks: “They start every meeting asking, ‘How can Morgan Stanley bring more jobs here?’”
While China prioritizes social stability through top-down control, Singapore leverages transparency and efficiency to attract multinational firms. This dichotomy, Strong argues, underscores why Southeast Asia will remain a critical — but complex — arena for U.S. business engagement.
Strong’s analysis underscores the need for coherent trade policies, deeper Asia-Pacific partnerships, and a clear-eyed view of China’s structural challenges. For the U.S., balancing competitive resolve with collaborative foresight may determine whether it sustains leadership in an era where economic power is increasingly forged east of the Pacific.
